MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INC

MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports that the Pound has benefited from broad US Dollar weakness, with GBP/USD briefly above 1.3500 and EUR/GBP near 0.8300. Markets expect the BoE to deliver its first rate hike since the US-Iran conflict began, though MUFG anticipates cautious forward guidance and fewer hikes than currently priced, limiting but not reversing recent Pound strength.

MUFG notes that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) raised the FX reserve requirement ratio to 6% from 4% after USD/CNY moved toward 6.65, effective 15 November. The measure is seen as locking up about USD24 billion in FX liquidity and aiming to slow CNY appreciation rather than reverse it.

MUFG’s call puts the risk squarely on the New Zealand dollar: with a hike almost fully priced, the currency’s G10 outperformance this month depends on the RBNZ endorsing a much steeper path than MUFG expects. Neutral or “wait and see” language could trigger a repricing of the roughly three and a half further hikes priced, pulling front-end yields lower and weighing on the kiwi, with AUD/NZD a likely beneficiary ahead of the RBA meeting on November 2 and 3. A hawkish surprise would delay that repricing, not prevent it, in MUFG’s view. Oil remains the main counterweight: further gains in crude would push up New Zealand’s fuel-driven inflation and make the market’s more aggressive path harder to unwind.

MUFG’s Teppei Ino reviews USD/JPY price action over the week, noting the pair opened near 157.79 and briefly climbed as Oil prices and US rates rose on Middle East tensions. Subsequent risk-off sentiment from...