BOJ preview: Daiwa sees hold, but 2% inflation call could open door to December hike

A hold is largely the base case, so the yen and JGB yields are likely to take their cue from the language rather than the decision. A formal declaration that underlying inflation has reached 2%, a Takata dissent and any shift by Ueda toward “next meeting” phrasing would together read as hawkish, supporting the yen and pushing short-end yields higher as markets price a December move. Higher crude prices are a key upside risk, with oil already reigniting upstream cost pressure and feeding the BOJ’s concern about inflation overshooting. A guarded Ueda who stresses a broad review of financial conditions could see December pricing trimmed and the yen soften.